They are all a part of predictive analytics, something that is used in many different sectors.
Predictive analytics are sets of methods used for forecasting or predicting.
In sports betting, it serves to give bettors that perceived edge and look for better opportunities.
So here we will look at various predictive analytics methods and show you how to use them.
you could also use it to size your stake or plan yourbetting strategy.
For instance, how much you will stake on a bet you are quite confident in.
Or, how many legs will you risk putting into yourbetting parlay.
Many sportsbooks display percentages or data-drivenprobabilitiesof either team winning.
Simulations can help give you a rough idea of a team’s chances of winning.
In bettor’s terms, that means theExpected Valueis positive (+EV) or negative (-EV).
You must see how that converts into betting odds.
To do so, you should probably divide 1 by your estimate (in percent).
This calculates to -172 American odds.
you could use ouruniversal odds calculatorto convert Moneyline odds (American) into decimal.
This is below the odds that your estimate has priced them at.
Implied odds of the wager are made by dividing 1 by the decimal odds.
So in the case of -200 (1.5), the implied probability is 66.67%.
So the bookmaker is more confident in the Yankees winning, which is not good for you.
At another sportsbook, the Yankees are priced at -150 (1.667) instead.
The IP on this bet is 60%, which is 3% lower than you estimated.
This is good, as you aim to find a bet that has longer odds than 1.58.
This means, the expected value is positive.
In betting terms, this would be written as +EV.
Instead of betting $10 to win $15.80, you would win $16.67.
Shopping Lines for Discrepancies
The example we supplied above is a bit of a stretch from reality.
As you wouldn’t find such a big discrepancy between oddsmakers.
But they don’t stop there.
Odds are calculatedin a way that profit the book.
Therefore, they apply somejuice, or vig, on their wagers to shorten the odds ever so slightly.
Which is practically impossible, but thats the waythe book makes its edge.
it’s possible for you to see the odds discrepancies for yourself in our best odds trackers.
Below are links to our odds comparison tables where we source premium betting odds from top sportsbooks.
Looking for Line Shifts
Betting lines also shift in the days and hours preceding a sports event.
Thesestatistics and dataare taken into account at sportsbooks.
But they are often overlooked by data driven software that only look at historical performance data.
And they can have a tremendous impact on what will happen in the next game.
Just before the game starts, you get theclosing line value.
The line value also changes because ofpublic betting.
This means, shifting the juice so that there is more juice on the favorite than on the underdog.
It doesnt just serve the purpose of getting you better value for your money.
It is also paramount to some bet sizing strategies.
The most famous of these is theKelly Criterion betting strategy.
Kelly Criterion bettors dont just look for good value and bet.
They analyse the percentage of how good the value is.
And based on that percentage, they allocate a portion of their bankroll onto that bet.
In theory, this practise mitigates the risks and also optimises wins.
You wont risk as much on a +EV bet that has a lower perceived edge.
Or analysing points scoring methods to bet on 3-pointers or rebounds among thebasketball props markets.
Long Term Betting Strategy Using Analytics
Predictive analytics are strategies that are constantly evolving.
You collect data such as line movements, winning percentages and other analytics to refine your strategy continuously.
In that you are looking for good deals, betting cautiously, and never underestimating the risks.
Make a 8 leg parlay with a minimal stake, and hope for the stars to align.
But the essence of predictive analytics isnt really about short term success.
Dont become overly ambitious and track data of all 30 MLB teams in all of their games.
Stick to a handful of teams and specialise in yourMLB betting strategyin a way that is manageable and comfortable.
Say you pay for a subscription on a sports predictive analytics software.
And this software gives you betting tip recommendations on a daily basis.
A lot of them do.
Sure, it may work for a few weeks or you may get astreak of good luck.
But what happens when you lose 4 picks in a row.
But a lot of them wont:
They also tend to mask the risks, or downplay them.
And no bettor, under any circumstances, should underestimate the risks.
Sports bettingis not like casino gaming, as it has a far more personal element to it.
And we do, but it still doesnt change the fact that anything can happen in a game.
When you win, it feelsextra rewardingas your prediction came through and your betting expertise is seemingly reinforced.
A loss carries moregamblers remorse, as your personal prediction may have completely missed the mark.
Sports betting can also lead to many gamblers fallacies.
This can lead to some bettors picking 3, 4, or more legs on their parlay.
After all, if they are all strong favorites then they should all win their games easily.
But that is not the case.
Variance is a common phenomenon in sports betting, and you may find favorites suddenly entering a losing streak.
Or patchy form from an underdog, who beats statistically better teams and loses to perceived weaker ones.
Using this analysis can also lead to agambler’s conceit.
In that you overestimate your chances of winning.
But always remember that no bet is guaranteed to win.
Set deposit limits to check that you stick to your bankroll.
And never bet on impulse, as this habit can lead to compulsive betting.
Daniel has been writing about casinos and sports betting since 2021.
