But casinos use probability to make business.
They use it to create an edge over players and turn a profit in the long run.
Beginner’s luck is a myth, as are winning or losing streaks.
How to Calculate Probability
Probability is calculating the likelihood of a specific outcome.
It can be expressed as a fraction, a ratio or a percentage.
For example, a coin flip has a 50% chance of landing on either side.
But casinos do not offer odds of 36/1 or 37x for betting on a number in Roulette.
This is the juice, or vig, that casinos charge in invisible fees.
Or not yours necessarily.
Instead of moneyline betting, you are going tobet against the spread.
The sportsbook prices the difference between the two teams at 5.5.
Betting on the Chiefs, and they will have a -5.5 spread, which they must overcome to win.
The probability should be 1/1 on either team, as now they both have a 50-50 shot of winning.
Betting sites will not price the bets at 1.0 (+100 in American odds, 1/1 in fractional).
Let’s say you place $10 on each of the six spread bets, and only 3 won.
This means, you oughta win 52.38% of your bets to make it break even.
Dissecting Sports Betting Probability and Odds
The key word there is Implied Probability.
This is theprobability of an outcomemerely going on what the odds are.
The implied probability will be higher than the actual possibility of the event occurring.
And sometimes, it is just a matter of pure luck that determines the outcome of a game.
Sportsbooks generally calculate the odds through all sorts of software and algorithms.
They crunch the numbers until they come up with odds that they can sell.
Niche sports,props betsand player bets may have varying degrees of juice.
Juice is rarely divided equally.
The contrasting bet on the underdog will have less juice, but most bettors will not back them anyway.
When juice is 10% or longer, then you should probably shop around a little bit.
Some sportsbooks have longer juice on certain sports because they have a more limited coverage.
As opposed to a general sports betting site that covers everything from Call of Duty to Gaelic football.
But the probability of each outcome is not displayed.
Instead, we getVolatility ratesand Return to Player percentages.
RTP can never be over 100% and generally falls within the 90-97% range for slots.
For other types of games, such as video poker, it can be much higher.
High volatility may mean more frequent wins, but of a smaller value.
Blackjack, for example, is a great example of this.
Similarly, there are similar strategies for Roulette, Baccarat, and even Video Poker.
Conclusion
The most important aspect to take out of this is the following.
Casinos will always take their cut, and give themselves an edge over you.
Daniel has been writing about casinos and sports betting since 2021.
