The effects of winning and losing, at a surface level, are easy to imagine.
But in that moment it doesn’t have the same impact as a complete or damning loss.
Instead, near misses can trigger our brain to release dopamine and entice us to keep playing.
Defining Near Misses
Now there is a lot to be analysed about near misses.
The simplest example is anear miss in slots, when you are one symbol short ofwinning the big jackpot.
For instance, landing Cherry-Cherry-Bell in a classic three reel slot machine.
You need 1 more Cherry to form a line of three Cherries, an obvious near miss.
The slots are designed to have many different payouts, and a vast number ofrandom outcomes.
It is just another facet of thecomplex slots psychology.
The more meaningful the potential win could be,the more the near miss is felt.
A phenomenon that is also apparent in other classic casino games.
And no one is stopping you from placing multiple bets in one round.
When the ball lands on a segment just outside your covered areas, it is a near miss.
For blackjack players, near misses are a bit more difficult to define.
These games are made more complex by the addition of theelement of control.
Video Poker
Video poker is another complex game that can produce near misses.
Allvideo poker optimal strategiesplace heavy emphasis on higher rankingpoker hands.
On paper, this strategy could also improve avideo poker game’s RTP.
There is a lot of room for near misses in video poker.
They produce the desired effect on players, in getting them to play more.
They asserted that the slot machines supplied by Universal were specially programmed to make more near misses.
Regulators deemed these machines misleading because they contained devices that misled players.
The vote ruled against Universal, and over 120,000 slot machines had to be reprogrammed.
Now there haven’t been many similar high profile cases about near misses.
Secondary Decision Outcomes
The law forbids casinos from usingSecondary Decision outcomes.
These are basically bonus games or side bets offered during regular gameplay.
When casinos offer these games, they cannot predetermine the outcomes.
Any gamble or wager offered cannot have a fixed result if it is presented as a random bet.
So,secondary decision outcomes are illegal, and these games are not rigged by casinos.
They can still feel like near misses though, especially when they look like 50-50 shots.
These third party auditors runhundreds of thousands of simulationson each individual game to see whether they use properRNGs.
Using these tests, they can determine whether the game is fair to play or not.
Theprobability and oddsindicate you are more likely to have a near miss than the win itself.
There are 4 Royal Flush combinations in total.
Compare that to 15 combinations where you hit a straight, but not a Royal Flush.
And this goes for all other games too.
In slots, there may be several paylines through which you’re free to form higher payout sequences.
But there are loads more near misses for every exact win.
The odds of hitting a near miss are higher than actually winning.
The games are designed this way, and casinos don’t need to rig their RNGs or programming.
The near misses occur naturally and can have the desired effect on players without needing additional reinforcement.
No, instead casinos actively use other mediums toget you to play more.
Bonuses and promotions are especially prominent at online casinos.
With their resources, there are all kinds of bonuses online casinos can lavish on players.
These all work toincentivise gamers and get them playing.
Instead, they just need people to come back and play more.
This is why it is highly important to always stay in control during your gaming.
These help you monitor how much money and time you spend gaming.
You are fully encouraged to use them, to avoid overspending or playing for hours on end.
Near misses, just like wins and losses, all alter yourdopamine regulationand can keep you in the loop.
All of these phenomena trigger emotional responses that urge you to play more, albeit for very different reasons.
A loss is followed by remorse, but also by the desire to have another go.
Near misses can produce a dopamine hit.
And we often get buzzed on the idea of what we nearly won.
Instead of looking at it for what it was.
A loss, and nothing more.
Therefore, it is also useful to take breaks as often as possible.
This helps you stay fresh and avoid falling into these typical fallacies and biases.
Ultimately, there is no avoiding near misses.
Daniel has been writing about casinos and sports betting since 2021.
