Players tend to misunderstand how variance works and buy into beliefs such as winning or losing streaks.
Defining Variance
Variance is a measurement of how much the real results differ from thestatistical probability.
Variance is usually more prominent when you have played fewer rounds.
TheMonte Carlo methoduses hundreds of thousands of simulations to determine the odds, and frequency of winning.
However, it can also mislead players into making wrong assumptions.
This is a commoncognitive biasthat gamblers can form, and something you gotta steer clear of.
So, therefore, in a statistically perfect world, you should win at least once in 37 rounds.
But while probable, it is not always the case.
Especially when you only play a few hands.
You win consecutive rounds in a game, beating the odds and pulling in sizable returns.
This is just a product of variance and has no foreboding on what will happen in the next round.
It is just as much a part of the game as a losing streak.
Variance can occur in all types of bets, no matter how likely or unlikely they are to win.
Let’s say you play straight numbers in roulette, with a chance of 1 in 37 to win.
Should you play 37 rounds and win 3 times, variance has given you a great helping of luck.
In theory, you would have won only once if there was no variance.
But you have won triple the number of times that you would have by laws of averages.
It may not be a winner streak by definition.
However, you must always be prepared for any eventuality in which variance works against you.
Just like winning streaks, losing streaks can come at any time, without warning.
Casinos don’t design the games intentionally so that you will lose.
Instead, they take a small cut out of your potential returns to create ahouse edge.
The zero does not count, and therefore yourodds of winningare slightly less than 48.64%.
Where there israndomness, there is room for variance to play a part.
The complexpaytable structurescan make counting the variance very difficult.
It is the most likely outcome, based on the design of the game.
But then you draw aRoyal Flush, and suddenly the variance shoots up.
In that regard, slots are quite similar to video poker.
Slots that havepartial payline payoutscan reduce the feeling of variance, as they can produce consistently smaller wins.
You won’t really feel whether you are in the profit or not without looking at your bankroll.
That is, unless you suddenly trigger a bonus game that will flood you with huge winnings.
You shouldn’t be relying on getting any returns.
Never mind how likely it is that you pull in some smaller wins to maintain your bankroll.
Then, you could start thinking about realistic goals and markers to hit during your gameplay.
Namely, how much you are prepared to lose before calling it a day.
You may experience fluctuations in your bankroll during gameplay, but it is important to stick to the plan.
When you plan for variance, you are planning for both winning and losing streaks.
Losing streaks can be frustrating.
However, if you weather the storm, the variance should diminish and your returns/losses should balance out.
But by calculating for all possible scenarios, you are best equipped to optimise your gameplay.
Think of the bigger picture, and how your actions can make a profit in the long run.
Daniel has been writing about casinos and sports betting since 2021.
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