Science
Betting odds are the result of a combination of statistical analysis and economic market analysis.
But who is to say how a sports game may turn out?
In the US a unique odds format is used, called American odds orMoneyline odds.
A plus sign (positive odds), is a more risky bet.
The maths behind it is that the odds represent how much you stand to win when wagering $100.
The negative odds symbolize how much you better spend to win $100.
These are simply numbers by which you multiply your stake to get the potential returns.
A bet with odds of 1.5 will mean you might win $150 from a $100 bet.
Should the odds be 3.2, you would win $180 from a $50 bet.
The UK uses fractional odds, which denote the profit you’re free to make.
In total, that is $150 in winnings.
Science Behind Calculating Odds
Oddsmakers use a complex set of algorithms and data processors togenerate their odds.
The systems can process vast sums ofstatistical informationand crunch out the odds in a matter of seconds.
Speed is an essential part of providing odds just think aboutlive betting markets.
Sportsbooks must make odds that measure the likelihood of something happening.
Intotals bets, they must calculate the margin of points that would bring these two teams to a balance.
The larger thepoint spread, the bigger the perceived difference between the two teams.
Larger spreads will also result in longer moneyline odds on the underdogs and shorter odds on the favorites.
Everything needs to be kept at a balance.
Generally, because oddsmakers offer bets on the opposite event occurring.
But you wouldn’t make a profit either way.
This is because of the juice, or house edge.
Juice in Sports Betting
Juicegoes by many names, including vigorish, vig, or house edge.
It is a small percentage that is skimmed off the odds to give the sportsbook an edge.
Here is an example usingmoneyline odds on a soccer gamebetween Arsenal and Chelsea.
To find the juice, we need to calculate theimplied probabilityof these bets.
you’re free to calculate the IP individually by dividing 1 by the decimal odds.
The remainder, over 100%, is the juice.
In this case, the juice is around 6%, which is quite average for a betting site.
But it is not that simple unfortunately.
The size of the juice may vary according to the popularity of the wager and the sport.
In mainstream betting sports, the juice is generally a little lower.
Niche sports do not attract as many bettors, and therefore the sportsbooks occasionally add a little more juice.
They do not apply the juice evenly though.
Sportsbooks don’t just calculate the probability of a sports event happening and then slap on the juice.
Let’s look at anMLB moneyline bet.
Say that the New York Yankees play the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium.
Think of it like a bet on a game of heads and tails.
The sportsbook will not give you even money on either bet (heads or tails).
Instead, it will provide odds of around 1.9.
Even though you won half the number of times which is mathematically the most likely scenario.
To make a profit, you will need to win around 52.63% of the time.
You may win 6 from 10 or even more flips, and make a profit.
You may not feel it at all when placing straight bets, but inparlay betsthe gap is quite noticeable.
A 5-selection spread parlay at the first sportsbook is valued at odds of +2435 (25.35).
At the second, it is just +2186 (22.86).
That is, an extra $24 return for every $10 wagered.
Betting value boils down to numerous things.
These are riskier bets, and are in danger of losing.
It, along with numerous other betting strategies, can give you a great edge over the house.
But you should probably analyse the odds carefully, and never overestimate your chances of winning.
Daniel has been writing about casinos and sports betting since 2021.
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